The Arachnet Electronic Journal on Virtual Culture __________________________________________________________________ ISSN 1068-5723 February 28, 1994 Volume 2 Issue 1 SQARV2N1 HART THE RATE OF CHANGE OF THE RATE OF CHANGE March, 1994 UseNet Indicators Are 7 Times As High in Jan, 1994 as Jan, 1993 7215703 Jan94 >> 1142783 Jan93 by Michael Hart Just in case you hadn't heard some real, if not HARD statistics about the uses of the various networks. . .here are the smaller indicators of UseNet usage. . .in a completely inaccurate file, because I used different methods to create each file, and thus, I am afraid I introduced about up to 2% of "rounding error" and I am sure the original data files contained some duplications. However, you will get the general idea, and can verify these in your own manner by getting the raw materials yourself via FTP: pit-manager.mit.edu The first three files are collections of the names of everyone? who posted a note to UseNet in that year. Stats for 91 are for only the second half of the year, hence the .ext = 912, and for later files, as well, the same convention is used. You will note that the file for 93 is about double that of 92-- and that given extrapolation from the divisions I made form 93, that 92 is likely to have been even more than double of 91, for the second half of the year tends to have double the first half of the year, at the current growth rate. 1993 29782185 1992 15595354 1991 3899620 [Second half of year] 1993 14352115 This is for the last 4 months 1993 16025196 This is for the first 8 /note "rounding error" Below are approximations of the files for individual months of these years, with approximations of the uncompressed filesizes based on a 58% compression rate. Uncompress Compressed [Estimate] 285774 165749 Jul91.Z 345243 200241 Aug91.Z 456233 264615 Sep91.Z 704064 408357 Oct91.Z 446322 258867 Nov91.Z 651498 377869 Dec91.Z 227312 160841 Jan92.Z 596709 346091 Feb92.Z 933222 541269 Mar92.Z 901270 522737 Apr92.Z 943770 547387 May92.Z 763898 443061 Jun92.Z 872612 506115 Jul92.Z 935081 542347 Aug92.Z 851193 493692 Sep92.Z 1091862 633280 Oct92.Z 1246548 722998 Nov92.Z 1024374 594137 Dec92.Z 1142783 Jan93 The following were not compressed. 1407400 Feb93 2708383 Mar93 2528709 Apr93 2647954 May93 1505801 Jun93 1032938 Jul93 2740408 Aug93 2795697 Sep93 3315065 Oct93 3849593 Nov93 4107454 Dec93 7215703 Jan94 3778435 Feb94 [first half of the month] You will note that January, 1994 is between double and triple of the average month of 1993, and is nearly 7 times! the size of January, 1993. *** I am not just throwing this information out there for reasons unknown and unstated. . .the purpose of this entire series of The Rate of Change of the Rate of Change is to encourage your individual participation in a rapidly changing virtual world. There are now about 20 million computers on the Internet, and perhaps 40 million people you can send email to; those of you who were on the Nets before 1993 are now old-timers for a new generation counting as 84% of the current Net population if a person is to believe the numbers above. Those numbers are even equal to those currently given by the media, who say the Net population is increasing by 20%/month, which would equal an increase to 7.43 times as many Netters a year, so there just might be some truth to these estimates. What does this mean to you. . .it means that next year, those of you who have been here only a month or so will be in those who are among the 10% most experienced Netters! As with any rapidly growing enterprise, there are those whose thoughts run to a personal agenda of taking over. It is against this kind of thing that I wish to warn you. The Nets are Yours, paid for with Your Tax Dollars, and these people have no right to be heard any more than you have, even if they managed to get here first. I was on the Nets first in 1971, which does NOT give me legal power to impose my will on you, OR on those who would impose, these words are all I have to encourage your own self-defense . . .and believe me, the day will come when you realize these impositions on the Nets will require your self-defense in the same manner that your need to defend yourself against network television and the like. This is a new medium, new to 88% of the people on the Nets in the last year, to 99% of the people over the past two years. As in any New Medium, the form as well as the content are put up for grabs, not necessarily intentionally, but there were a very few who even considered computers as in a communications context more than a brief moment ago, and thus they were only barely prepared to use the medium at all, much less to try to control that medium in the manner in which previous media had been controlled by monopolistic networks--in fact a "network" had a terribly bad connotation during the television heyday-- and only began to reappear in a positive light when networked women's groups recently coined the term "networking." Is The Glass Half Empty or Is It Half Full? Of course, some of the greatest advantages of our network are also some of the greatest disadvantages, too. Not only are there teen-age computer wizards on the networks, helping millions of new people get used to things, but also a group of political wizards are also working the Nets, in some manner akin to this, but on those other side of the coins, at least some of the time. I have been witness to 23-year-olds coming fresh out of grad- school and riding a shooting star to Net fame, and perhaps to fortune, as well. Why? As I said, some of the greatest advantages of our network are also some of the greatest disadvantages, too. With basically everyone as a "new user" on the Nets, it takes only a brief moment to establish oneself as a "personality"-- no one knows you are only a 23 year-old with one year of grad school. . .and this supports both the best and worst of these network conditions. The easiest way to become accepted anywhere, including a "New Media" situation, is to look and act like everyone else. The new graduate often acted in a manner as formally conservative as the oldest, most powerful tenured professor. "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery" and therefore a "New Medium" always has to fight for its independence against those who would rather use the new medium merely to copy from the old. [An interesting point for someone to make with only a single claim to fame of copying books onto the Nets. True, I am hoping that Electronic Books will be better than paper-- but, still, the irony is NOT lost on me.] What we have is a spectrum of people, most of whom are so new to the nets that they don't comment much about what goes on-- but some of which have instantly realized that this is one of the "opportunities of a lifetime" to take over a new medium-- on the ground floor. The trouble is, they want to build the ground floor to be for just exactly the same purpose as the old ground floor--which, if you will just look at the old ground floors, is monopoly. --The Single Greatest Feature of the Nets is Anti-Monopoly-- 1. There is no way to interrupt anyone via email. 2. Once something is written on the Nets there is no reason everyone should not be able to have a copy, unless those who wrote it don't want unlimited distribution. Some people support these as the great values of Net Society. Other people try to deny this in a variety of ways. 1. There are those who would rather "pound a gavel" in some discussion group, rather than simply press "delete" when they see a message they don't like, or rather than point out some opposing point of view; I have rarely, if ever, seen a discussion group not go through this period on an early anniversary of its founding. Someone always tries to take control of an "electronic gavel". . .not just to stop themselves from hearing something they don't like-- but to try to insure total censorship of the whole list. 2. I would guess a majority of public domain materials that are created on the nets are never posted for distributed access outside a small group for "Insider Trading." You put in a copy of Chaucer, I put in a copy of Milton, and we trade amongst our little group, keeping the expertise and access to expertise in limited distribution. There is something basically fundamental about this process, something I don't really understand enough to describe it to you clearly, but there is something wrong when public domain material is kept secret, protected by a limited distribution contract or user agreement, and circulated by mailing disks, tapes, and CDROMs around the world at great expense, when it would be so much easier to post on FTP, Gopher, WAIS, WWW or Mosaic, etc. Of course, that is only half the story; for every example of this kind of restrictive effort, there is an example of some effort that is just the opposite. Just as there are four of the major archives that promote Limited Distribution, so too are there four sources promoting Unlimited Distribution, and there will/are probably be more any day now. For every person who tries to pick up and wield electrons in the form of a gavel, there is someone to say [as in a Wizard of OZ scenario] Pay No Attention To The Little Person Behind The Curtain! For every person who wants to keep the Shakespeares, Miltons and Chaucers of the world hidden away in the vest of English Professor, there is a person, sometimes an English Professor with a tenured position, who says "No! Everyone should have Shakespeare, Milton and Chaucer. . .and all the rest! The same is true for electronic copies of art masterpieces-- musical masterpieces--and a variety of other masterpieces. What is the most interesting, is that most of the support of Unlimited Distribution comes from those who make their lives from Limited Distribution. Most of the support comes from those who distribute Etext in a commercial environment, while most of the restriction from those who are not in the commercial environment, those whose position which, if medical doctors, would be in violation of the Hippocratic Oath. It amazes me that I can get materials from World Library who makes Library the Future, and from Grolier Encyclopedia, and from a variety of other commercial sources and even get cash donations from them for the creation and distribution of the electronic books that are in the public domain. On the other hand, it also amazes me that I cannot get other sources of information as easily, without ridiculous charges and restrictions on redistribution, from those who are in an enterprise that is non-commercial in nature. Am I saying there are Hypocrites out there on the Nets? Yes I am. Am I saying there are just the opposite, too? Yes, I am. The cup is both half empty AND half full. . . . And I would like to point out that even in most of the close to the vest producers of electronic books that some of their books are released to the general public, at least after the application of some gentle prodding. . .so I am presuming it will be the case that these glasses may also be capable of a future of becoming more full to the public than empty. ===================================================== Thank you for your time and consideration, Michael S. Hart, Professor of Electronic Text Executive Director of Project Gutenberg Etext Illinois Benedictine College, Lisle, IL 60532 No official connection to U of Illinois--UIUC hart @uiucvmd.bitnet or hart@vmd.cso.uiuc.edu THIS MESSAGE IS A PRIVATE COMMUNICATION, INTENDED ONLY TO BE READ BY THE PEOPLE TO WHOM IT IS ADDRESSED. RECIPIENTS OF THIS MESSAGE MAY NOT COPY OR DISTRIBUTE IT IN WHOLE OR IN PART WITHOUT MICHAEL HART'S WRITTEN PERMISSION, OTHER THAN TO REPLY. COPYRIGHT 1994 PROF. MICHAEL S. 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